August 15, 2006

Pan Pacs 2006 - What to Watch For

Posted by Scott

The Pan Pacs are coming, the Pan Pacs are coming.  While some of you may sit on the edge of your seat with anticipation, others sit around clueless as to what to watch, who to watch, and why?  While this year’s iteration of the Pan Pacific Championships will be without many of the world’s stars, either because they have chosen to sit out the competition or were flat out not invited as is the case with the whole of Europe (who just finished their own championships).  So, decending upon us in Victoria are a number of athletes, some with stories already written and many others looking to write theirs this weekend.  So whether or not you are truly a fan, sit back and enjoy what the rest of the world’s swimming community will be watching quite intently.

Can Australia Step Up?  Swimming Australia is without many of their "biggest names" in Ian Thorpe, Grant Hackett, Jodie Henry, and Michael Klim, but that by no means degrades the fact that Australia arrives in Canada with some incredible talent.  The question though is, "can these young athletes step up for the whole of a nation watching?"  Swimming is Australia’s national past-time - think base-ket-foot-ball-key (or baseball, basketball, football, and hockey combined for us Americans).  It is a country that is invested in Ian Thorpe’s every move, drapes billboards with their favorite swimmer’s likenesses, and talks about the sport of swimming daily in mainstream media (think ESPN leading every broadcast with swimming).

But can the likes of Andrew Mewing, Joanna Fargus, Kenrick Monk, and Jessicah Schipper rise to the challenge?  Probably yes, but in swimming, nothing is guaranteed, and that is what excites us rabid fans, and scares the Australians.

Will Brazil play a part in the competition?  Kaio Marcio Almeida is probably the best swimmer in Brazil.  On the 2005-2006 World Cup circuit he did not a single fly race across the 50, 100, and 200 meters.  In December of 2005 he broke the 50 meter butterfly short course World Record.  He currently also holds the South American Records on the 50 fly, 100 fly, 200 fly in short course meters and the 200 fly long course.

Kaio and Thiago Pereira are the best known male swimmers in Brazil since the Gustavo Borges and Scherer “era”.  Thiago was 5th in Athens in the 200 IM and is a very talented swimmer who swims fast almost at any meet.  He has been training with Ryan Lotche so the expectations are high.  In 2004 he also won the 200 IM at the Short Course World Champs.

How will the host Canadian’s fare?  Canada has the unique opportunity to host a second straight major international swimming competition right in their backyard, but will they take full advantage of the home crowd?  Popular opinion in Canada would probably say "swimming, eh?"  But being on your own turf can definitely raise the performance level of any country, and Canada is banking on this fact despite hosting the championships in small (less than 2500 seats) venue.

Brent Hayden is Canada’s next major champion.  Not since Victor Davis, Mark Tewksbury, and Alex Baumann has Canada seen so much talent in a male swimmer.  Hayden has the potential to medal in each even he swims and help lead Canada down glory road in the relays.

On the women’s side it is all about youth for Canada, and when you mention youth you must mention Savannah King.  King surprised everyone and has become a force in the 1500 meter freestyle by dropping over a second in the past year to become one of the world’s fastest milers.  The youth movement rests on whether or not innocence and inexperience can lead Canada’s women to the medal podium. 

It will also be interesting to see how the under-18’s fare for Canada.  Pierre LaFontaine took an extraordinary step to implement the criteria that no matter the place at the Canada Championship, the fastest swimmer under 18 years of age would compete for Canada at the Pan Pacs.  Will it inspire these young athletes to greatness or scare what could possibly Canada’s greatest hopes back into their holes for 10 more years?

Claudia Poll.  The Costa Rican who was once banned from competition is slated to compete at these championships.  Will she?  If she does, what can we expect from a swimmer whose greatest days are years in the past.

The great Japanese hope - Kosuke Kitajima.  The Japanese breastroker, who some will say cheated his way to Olympic golds in the Breastroke events in Athens.  Once the world record holder in the 100 meter breastroke, Kitajima has seen better days.  He did not even qualify to swim the 200 meter event in Victoria, but maybe, just maybe it is a ploy.  Could he be aiming for Brendan Hansen?  In a word, yes, but who isn’t.  Can he catch him?  The world record holder, Hansen, would be quick to say no.  I’ll have to side with Hansen on that one.  But again, swimming is full of surprises, so expect Kitajima to make it a race.

Why is China only bringing their "B" team? I think that I will opt to not touch this subject with a ten foot pole.  Let’s leave it at Olympics in Beijing plus China’s past equals a lot of questions.

The men’s 50 meter Freestyle.  This one will be a dandy.  I am not even going to attempt it.  Throw a bucket of pirhana’s in a confined space, and you’d stay away too.  Let’s run down the contenders.

1. Cullen Jones - winner of the 50 free at the USA Nationals and on the rise and steadily improving.  He has the advantage of not knowing any better and just swimming his heart out. 
2. Roland Schoeman - coming off becoming the first man to break the 21 second barrier in the short course 50 freestyle.  No matter what he’ll say, Schoeman is on fire - I would recommend staying clear.
3. Jason Lezak - You cannot leave him out, but quite honestly may have to if Gary Hall has something to say about it - that and Lezak’s past filled with fizzles at major international meets.
4. That brings us to Gary Hall, Jr. - USA’s one man show.  I, personally, cannot wait to see what kind of antics he will be up to.  Will Gary stand for wearing a cap with another sponsor’s logo on it?  Surely not, but we will wait and see.  Why does Gary throw a wrench into Lezak’s plans?  Because, I believe, only two finalists can be from the same country, so since I like Jones more, Lezak or Hall will have to fight for second.
5. Some Australian - How can you leave out Australia in any event.  They will have someone near the top, but like most meets, that someone is anyone’s guess in the 50.
6. Brent Hayden - Like I said before, he is for real, and you can expect 2000 crazy Canadians to be egging him on.
7. George Bovell - Who?  What?  Read on…

George Bovell. Will his move to California to train with Mike Bottom turn him into a sprinter?  My guess, he will be compete, but the short answer is no.  Why run from success like Bovell has done.  David Marsh and the Auburn program brought him to the swimming world.  An unknown who won bronze in Athens in the 200 individual medley.  What is he running from?  Does he want a new challenge?  Why not try beating Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte in the event that won him bronze first… then move on to new things.  If you are improving, stay with what works.

The whole of Team USA.  Without a doubt, the United States will dominate in Victoria.  On paper they are the most accomplished team, with a laundry list of great swimmers.  How they prepared is anyone’s guess.  But fast swimming is all but guaranteed, or at least so I say.  Team USA could make for an exciting show for NBC - maybe even the ratings boost they are looking for in getting the Beijing start times changed.

Lochte vs. Phelps vs. Peirsol - Part Two.  The 200 backstroke is Aaron Peirsol’s bread and butter.  For years he has had his cake and eaten it too, but never before have the challenges been so great.  You can fully expect Phelps to want to win this event more than any other event on his schedule.

The Mr. Phelps Show.  Hey, it would be a good show in my mind.  Seriously, though, Phelps has a chance to win any event he enters, and in Victoria it will be no different.  It is not about if he will win, but about when and how many times.  I will not lie, I am still to this day in awe of his talent, and will watch his every race intently - as should you - especially the battle of the Alamo (or should I say the 100 meter butterfly showdown with Ian Crocker).

The men’s 100 meter Butterfly.  Phelps and Crocker, Crocker and Phelps.  This one goes back and forth more than a see-saw in a preschool playground.  Who will win the one on one showdown this time around?

Will Brendan Hansen re-break his world records?  According to Hansen, "there is still more in the tank," so no less he feels that both those records will fall again here in Victoria as they did at the USA Nationals in Irvine.  I guess the only question that would remain is "by how much?"

Of course there are multitudes of other interesting stories and races that are bound to shape up and present themselves, and Timed Finals will be right there covering it all.