Thorpe Doesn’t Think Phelps Will Top Spitz
Michael Phelps may not be sharing his goals for the ‘08 Games in Beijing, but a report out today in the Guardian indicates Ian Thorpe isn’t shying away from publicly stating that he doesn’t think Phelps will be able to top Mark Spitz’s 1972 gold medal haul.
Thorpe is quoted telling the Guardian that he wishes Phelps “all the very best. I don’t think he will do it, but I’d love to see it.” The remark is more equivocation than fightin’ words from the oft even-handed Thorpe, himself a 9-time Olympic medalist who knows as well as anyone that there is rarely such a thing as a “sure thing” in any Olympic contest (Nesty’s 1 one-hundredth of a second upset of Biondi in the 100 Fly at Seoul in ‘88 comes to mind). With regards to competition, Thorpe goes on to tell the Guardian that “[T]here’s a thing called competition. It won’t just be one athlete that will be competing, and in a lot of events he has a lot of strong competition.”
Phelps’ shot at winning seven or even eight golds, and his reservations in saying whether or not that’s even a goal of his, is well-documented on past Timed Finals posts. Common wisdom suggests Phelps has a good shot of winning the 100 and 200 fly, 200 free, 200 and 400 IM, and being part of three winning relays. That’s eight right there. Then what about the 100 or 200 backstroke, or the 100 free given his performance at Long Beach this month? Anything is possible.
The 200 fly is obviously his biggest lock, considering he owns 8 of the top 10 all-time performances and is two-and-a-half seconds ahead of the second fastest person in history. Phelps is nearly as strong in the 400 IM, where he’s more than 3 seconds ahead of Laszlo Cseh’s best, the second fastest performer ever. There are questions whether anyone will be able to step up and offer him a serious challenge in the 200 free, but come the 200 IM one can’t count out either Lochte or Cseh’s chances at gold. The 100 fly is likely his diciest medal hope, if he swims it, considering it’s the only one of the five individual events listed in which he doesn’t own the world record.
Whether or not Thorpe is right in his prognosticating, we won’t know anything until Omaha when the world finds out which compliment of events Phelps chooses to go for and whether or not he makes the team in all of them (hey, anything CAN happen).
Comment by William E. King
Posted on January 28th, 2008 at 11:33
7 or 8 golds?
It ain’t gonna be easy, that’s for sure!
Comment by Joey
Posted on January 28th, 2008 at 13:39
Yep, it would be very tough,and I think that’s why Thorpe said it, as a motivator. He and Phelps are friends enough for Thorpe to know that Phelps will take this as a challenge to disprove it. Although he keeps his goals private so nobody knows for sure, Phelps seems to respond to challenges, either in word or in the pool, from his peers rather than the press and the public.
Comment by maly
Posted on January 28th, 2008 at 14:43
ian is speaking from experiance, everyone thought the gold medal in the 200 free would be for him in sidney and pieter van den hoogenband won the title. if the result were sure , sport competition wouldn’t be exciting.
Comment by ironman31
Posted on January 28th, 2008 at 17:59
Phelps wouldn’t be able to take the one or two back, no way. I don’t see jim winning the 100 free either, too many fast people in that event. I’ll be surprised if he can win the 100 fly and USA is going to have a hard time with south africa when it comes to the 400 free relay.
Comment by Joe
Posted on January 28th, 2008 at 18:52
South Africa? I’d be a lot more worried about the French team. They’re strong contenders. Neethling and Schoeman don’t seem to be the same since Montreal, and they’re not getting any support from their federation. I doubt they’ll seriously challenge the American team.
Comment by Timmay
Posted on January 28th, 2008 at 20:39
It won’t be easy, but if anyone can do it, he’s the one. I know its not the same as the Olympics, but just look at 07 World Champs- nothing less than amazing.
Comment by alice
Posted on January 28th, 2008 at 21:06
I saw Thorpe saying the same thing (don’t think anyone can win 8 gold) while in China last year. I think 4 x 100 Free relay is tough for US. In all individual events, Phelps will face tough competition. Won’t be easy but at least he is going to try and I truely respect Phelps in taking up the challenge.
Comment by SwimVoodoo
Posted on January 28th, 2008 at 21:07
The Spitz gold medal record is a good storyline but has the effect of propagating a skewed picture to the general public.
So if Phelps falls just short and wins “only” 6 gold medals he will be seen as falling short, *gasp* a “failure” in some quarters. One minor detail: It would also make him the most decorated Olympian of all time … in any sport. It wouldn’t go down as the best performance of all time in the view of many if not most. But it would cement his position as the best swimmer of all time and yes perhaps the best Olympian. Is there any one here who thinks that winning seven gold medals in one Olympiad trumps winning six at two? Spitz was touted by the media (and himself) to take home a gold medal haul in Mexico City. We know how that turned out.
Thorpe doesn’t seem to be saying Micheal isn’t capable of it just that he thinks it’s unlikely. I’m not as skeptical as Ian though. Of course, he CAN, he narrowly came up short in Athens largely due to factors out of his control. He’s in a better position now than then. The schedule for Beijing works well for him … even moreso … if he swims the events he did in Melbourne. ALL of his individual finals are swam before any semifinals he might have in other events each session. There is a way to go before the Olympics but going on the form of the last year he is strong favorite in three individual events (200 fly, 200 free, and 400IM). The US team are strong favorites for the 4×200 and the medley relay.
People tend to view the 100 fly rivalry with Crocker as his biggest obstacle also in large part due to medley relay selection. However, don’t discount Michael’s chances of swimming the free anchor leg in the final. Unless veteran Lezak can recapture his 2006 form or someone else makes a jump (say sub 48.5) his chances of being the best 100 free swimmer available are good. There is no other event Michael swims during the session of the 4×100 medley on the last night.
I think he is most likely (despite the coyness) to choose the same events he swam in Melbourne. If he is serious about giving Spitz’s record a scare it makes the most sense. The only tweak he would ever probably consider would be replacing the 200IM with the 200 back. But I think it’s unlikely. Remember, Michael could lose one event and still equal Spitz. A loss to Crocker or a loss to Lochte wouldn’t necessarily eliminate the possibility of tying Spitz (or surpassing if you count silver/bronze). Yes, we know what happened in the relay in Melbourne preventing Michael from eight golds. Odds would say a relay mishap is unlikely to happen again (if you rely on statistics). I’d say there’s a fair chance exchanges will be safe … especially on the 4×200 & Medley relays after the debacle last March. As Michael said at the time “better now than in Beijing.”
People think about what he needs to do to get there. But turn it around and think about what the “most likely” scenarios that need to happen to prevent him from at least tying Spitz’s 7 Golds. It always involves two things to occur not one. Unlike Athens where it was just the 4×100 relay.
1) Lose to Lochte/Cseh in the 200IM AND Crocker in the 100 fly
2) Lose to Crocker in the 100 fly AND have someone available that’s faster in the 100 free.
3) Replace either of the two scenarios in one of the above with a relay DQ or loss in the 4×100 relay.
It won’t be easy. But he is certainly capable as Melbourne and his close call in Athens show. If he is in the same form as he was in Melbourne I think chances are better that he will (at least equal the mark) than the chances he won’t. And even if he doesn’t future generations will eventually see beyond the Spitz lens the public is now looking through to get a better perception of Phelps and what he has accomplished.
Comment by nhobson
Posted on January 29th, 2008 at 08:02
The 400 Med. relay will provide Phelps with a medal, regardless of how the individual events shake out. Everyone seems to be forgeting that Phelps only has to swim the pre-lims to collect a medal. So even if Crocker has a faster 100 fly and Lezak a faster 100 free, he will still medal if he swims any stroke in the pre-lims.
Comment by JC
Posted on January 29th, 2008 at 10:04
Swim Voodoo — Excellent analysis. A couple additional points: even if Phelps does lose to Crocker in the 100 fly, and even if he isn’t the fastest 100 freestyler on the team, the coaches will undoubtedly let him swim the morning leg of the medley relay, which will technically qualify him for another gold medal, as it did in Athens. (I can’t imagine the coaches would deprive him of another gold medal by not letting him swim in the prelims.) Another thing the public at large doesn’t understand is the difference between individual golds and relay golds. Spitz won four individual, three relay golds. Phelps has already won four individual golds at a single Olympics (plus two relays). If you’re the best 100 freestyler in the world, and your country happens to have three other guys who are also fast at that event, you win another gold medal, in effect getting two golds for the same event. And back in Spitz’s day, relay golds were pretty much an automatic bonus for being an American citizen. If you’re comparing individual greatness, it’s the individual medals that count, and there, Phelps has already tied Spitz. But for the public at large, Spitz won seven golds, and that’s all that matters to them. Another thing that could happen is that it’s always possible to get a little bug, and you never know when you’re going to come down with one. Coughlin caught one right before Worlds in Barcelona ‘03, and performed poorly as a result. It didn’t mean she hadn’t prepared as well as she could have, it didn’t mean she got psyched out, it just meant that she got a virus at the wrong time, which was bad luck and nothing but. That could happen to Phelps, and, in fairness, it did happen to Spitz in ‘68. He WAS the greatest swimmer in the world at that point, but he caught Montezuma’s Revenge in Mexico City, and that was that. Dave Berkoff, a frequent poster here, was sick in Seoul, and that probaby kept him from getting the individual gold in the 100 back (despite having set a WR in semis). I’m sure there are a lot of stories like that. Let’s hope the (possibly) strange food in Beijing doesn’t get the better of the athletes. For that matter, the smog is supposed to be quite bad over there; let’s hope that doesn’t affect anyone. Yet another thing that’s going to affect the swimmers is who is a “morning person” vs. “vening person.” Morning finals introduce a whole new element to the competition. Certain swimmers have reputations for not swimming fast in the morning. Whether that’s because they are particularly good at pacing and know exactly what it takes to get into finals and don’t want to expend any extra energy, or whether it’s because they generally aren’t at their best in the mornings, it’s hard to tell. But we’ll find out in Beijing, thanks to NBC. Anyway, it’s unfortunate, but all these things will/could be factors in Beijing as well.
Comment by Michel Angstadt
Posted on January 29th, 2008 at 16:12
Shooting for 9 golds (as in Athens) or even 10 would make it easier in terms of percentage chances. Two IMS, two flies, two frees, one back and three relays would probably be the maximum number of events Phelps could pack into his Beijing program.
At Athens he took 6 golds and 2 bronze and he was much less experienced. He had tough competition then (Thorpe, VDH, Crocker…) and he’ll have them again at Beijing (Lochte, Crocker, Cseh, maybe Peirsol, Nystrand, Magnini…), but I think he’s better prepared to attempt at least 9 gold medals.
It would be nice to see Ryan Lochte take half a dozen too. I wonder what events he will be choosing.
Comment by mike redding
Posted on January 29th, 2008 at 17:38
How many prelims and semis did Spitz have to swim in? Phelps is going to have 18+ swims. that’s crazy.
Comment by hibachi
Posted on January 29th, 2008 at 19:42
mannn….thorpe is just bitter because phelps crushed his record
Comment by alice
Posted on January 29th, 2008 at 20:46
I read in an article that Lochte will swim 100 & 200 Free, 2 IMs & 2 back events in the trial.
Comment by Jana
Posted on January 30th, 2008 at 13:45
I don’t care what anyone says. I know that Mike is capable of breaking Mark Spitz’s record. U just wait and see!
Comment by gheko
Posted on January 30th, 2008 at 14:14
I think Michael will win at least 7 golds, and probably eight, thats including three relays.
Comment by gheko
Posted on January 30th, 2008 at 14:18
His turns and underwater work are just sensational.
Comment by Runda
Posted on January 30th, 2008 at 15:35
If Phelps is on track by the time the Medley Relay comes around, there is no way he’ll just do just the heat swim if he has the choice. No-one would want to be known as the person who beat a record on a technicality. Fortunately for Michael he has less competition at a National level in the 100 free than the 100 fly, so he could lose the 100 Fly to Crocker and still legitimately swim the anchor leg of the Medley. Good luck to him.
Comment by gheko
Posted on January 30th, 2008 at 19:17
Thorpe will never be as great as Phelps, thats a given, so why comment on something that dont concern you. At least Micheal has the balls to lay it on the line again, which is more that can be said for Ian.
Comment by Ant
Posted on January 31st, 2008 at 15:40
Nooo doubt that he will.
He has (Michael), to my opinion, much more than enough talent to get even 10 Gold.
Let me share this with you : I come from one of the thiniest village on the planet, were comes from the world’s strongest man that ever lived on Earth (his records are still unbeaten 150 years later (source: Guinness book of Records and Ben Weider); you lift 560 pounds to the waist with one finger, and you tell me !).
I believe Michael is this type of guy. No doubt about it.
:-)
Vas-y Michael, vas-y !!!
Comment by Ant
Posted on January 31st, 2008 at 15:49
My own 100 Free fuels me to think that indeed, anything IS possible for him too.
If it was for me (just have a look at my chart), it’s obviously possible for him too.
Is this science or “gut feeling” ?
A little bit of both, maybe :-)
Comment by skiing
Posted on February 8th, 2008 at 20:08
It’s ridiculous of you to say so!
Michael will be the winner in the end!
He will win 8 gold medals in the coming Olympic Games..
He is the only Phelps in the world!
Comment by Kevin
Posted on February 8th, 2008 at 23:53
Alright guys I read through these comments and it is time for me to to post my opinion and I want some feed back. First off Phelps will have a more difficult time this summer gaining 8 golds than he did in Athens. Reason: More competition. He has improved a great deal over these years and even gained much more experience. But, he did not have Lochte coming around 4 yrs ago. Depending on his health, it would not surprise me one bit if Lochte were to sweep Phelps in the IMs. Besides you never know when Phelps could have a bad meet or not be healthy. Reason #2: Phelps has seemed to barely out touch Crocker in the 100 fly throughout meets. Crocker is craving revenge and who knows how fired up he will come in the fly. And if Phelps were willing to swim one or even both of the backstroke events, he now has Lochte to worry about and not just Peirsol to beat. What he is trying to accomplish is a gruesome task mentally and physically and his competitors in events could compete like there is nothing to lose..
Now for the reasons why he can pull off the gold medal count: Reason #1: Much more experience under his belt. That must have been hell going into Athens with the hype and all those events to swim. But the son of a bitch pulled it off! And Lochte does not have that experience. He also has much more success in his career in indoor pools and both Olympic trials and the Olympics in 2004 were outdoor. Both trials and the Olympics will be indoor this summer. If he’s strong enough he’s already proved he can win the 200 IM, 400 IM, 200 fly, 200 free and 100 fly. That’s five right there. I think he will enter the 100 free for a sixth event depending on how prepared he is. The reason being that the semi final for the 200 IM follows the finals for the 100 free and there’s no doubt he will qualify. He can win that event regardless of having an event before. As for the back events, I think he will enter one of the two in olympic trials and depending on the situation will opt out of the event like he did in 2004. If he were to qualify for the 200 back then he won’t do the 100 free because the semi finals of the 200 back is right before the 100 free finals. He will need all the energy possible to compete with monsters swimming the 100 free. So it could end up being a lottery pick for those two events. Now here’s where it gets interesting. I think he would choose the 100 back before the 200 back. He was only three hundredths off the world record in that one compared to three tenths in the 200 back. The only problem is that the finals for the 200 free is right before that event. He could be too tired. However, when he did come three one hundredths from that world record in the 100 back, he swam the finals of the 200 free right before it at nationals as well. I think that showed him and his coach that he can still compete regardless. Also, Lochte is going to enter to swim the 200 free at Olympic trials as well to see if he can qualify for the 800 free relay and I wouldn’t be surprised if he places second behind phelps in that event at trials. In conclusion, I think the 100 free and the 100 back are the sixth/seventh events he will choose for his individual program. Scratch the 200 back because he won’t do it and he hasn’t attempted that event in the past couple of meets. In the long beach grand prix and the Missouri grand prix coming up, he does the 100 fly, 100 back, 100 breast back to back to back. Maybe he’s testing his performance level in the 100 back when he is still fatigued from competing in an event before hand. So I don’t know- I definitely think he will have the opportunity to win 8 gold medals when you also consider that the U.S. is now dominant in all three relays. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Please give me feed back to whether you think I’m right or not. I think it will be very interesting to see what he swims and ridiculous to witness it.
Comment by SwimVoodoo
Posted on February 9th, 2008 at 00:18
“But, he did not have Lochte coming around 4 yrs ago.”
Well not quite true. Ryan did win the silver medal behind Michael in Athens in the 200IM. He also won gold as part of the 800 relay.
I think Michael’s smartest programme would be to stick with the events that he swam in Melbourne. I think it makes the most sense looking at the Beijing schedule which is the same as Melbourne with the exception that the 400IM is on the first day rather than the last. I do not think he will swim the 200 back. There is some possibility he may swim the 100 back but I think his schedule would be more difficult and that event is stacked. After Athens he can focus on seeing where he can go in other events like the 100 free, 200 back, etc.
Comment by alice
Posted on February 9th, 2008 at 11:24
I guess Phelps will stick with the 5 events he swam in both Athens & Melbourne. But if he wants to have 1 more event or just to secure his position in the medley relay, he may try to qualify for 100 Free (can also keep other swimmers’ mouths shut about his swimming in the 4 x 100 free relay) or 100 Back in US trial. Similar to the Athens schedule, the preliminary for medley relay will be swam before the 100 Fly final. In case US team decides not to have Phelps in the prelim and he loses the 100 Fly to Crocker, Phelps may not have a chance to swim the medley relay. So another 100 metre event may help.
Anyway 100 Back & 200 Back are star-studded and may be more difficult to qualify. I don’t think he will swim the 200 Back as this may affect his 200 IM which are on the same day (However Lochte definitely wants to swim both). For 100 Free, I don’t think Phelps will swim in Olympics as an individual event even if he qualifies since this may be the most difficult event for him to medal.
2012 Olympics will be a different story for Phelps. I guess he will try to win the 100 Free, the blue riband event. He may even try the 100 triple- ie 100 Free, Fly & Back.